DEBKAfile Special Analysis
December 3, 2002
Monday, December 2, five days after the event, Al Qaeda took formal responsibility
for the two attacks against Israeli targets at Kenya's Indian Ocean resort of
Mombassa last Thursday, November 28, in which 16 people died - 13 Kenyans and
three Israelis.
Several hours before al Qaeda posted its admission, three prominent Israeli
security figures suddenly found their voices on the dangers posed by al Qaeda
and the grave implications as regards Israel's abilities to fight back.
For many months, Israeli spokesmen kept quiet about the international fundamentalist
terror network's presence in Israel, first exposed by DEBKAfile last April,
despite al Qaeda's advancing collaboration with Hezbollah in support of Palestinian
terrorism.
The brutal murder of 21 celebrants at the Park Hotel Passover feast in Netanya
on March 27, 2002, provided cover for the first contingent of 15-20 heavily
armed al Qaeda men to land on Netanya beach from the sea. The week before, an
earlier group of Osama bin Laden's men poured across the Syrian-Israeli frontier
on the Golan and stole south through the West Bank gully of Wadi Kharmiyeh,
until they reached prepared hideouts in Ramallah and the Nablus district. Monday,
December 2, under the impact of the attacks in Kenya, Defense minister Shaul
Mofaz finally confirmed that the al Qaeda network had sent "octopus arms not
only into countries on the other side of the ocean but also to our region."
Chief of staff Lt. General Moshe Yaalon was a little more specific. He told
reporters that al Qaeda operatives had landed in this country and planned terror
attacks that were foiled. He stressed that the network also used Palestinians,
but insisted that the threats from al Qaeda, the prime suspect in the attacks
in Mombassa, had been eliminated both at home and abroad. The message acknowledging
responsibility for the attack was monitored by Israeli TV Channel 2 on five
pro-al Qaeda websites. It was signed unusually by the group's "political bureau"
and noted: "This is the second time we strike from Kenya - after the US embassies
bombings - but this time we hit the Jews in revenge for Israeli actions in Palestinian
territories. Your women for ours, your old for ours, your children for ours.
You have cast a siege of hunger around the Palestinians, we shall cast a siege
of fear over you." The message goes on to crow: "In the face of international
persecution, we are able to carry out operations against the Jewish-Crusader
Front." The Mombassa attacks were held up as "a slap in the face for the CIA
and the Mossad in this part of Africa."
Al Qaeda never dignifies the Jewish state with its name - only "the Jews" in
keeping with its all-round objectives.
DEBKAfile's experts on terror assert that al Qaeda terrorists are in this country
at the invitation of Yasser Arafat and with logistical support approved by him
in person. He imported the Hezbollah first, then Osama bin Laden's Islamic fighters,
to advance his single, never-changing goal, to fight Israel until it is destroyed.
In the last six months, therefore, while the diplomats and politicians spun
their plans, road maps and ceasefire schemes, Arafat surreptitiously turned
this country into an international center for the most dangerous professional
terrorists alive. He gathered under his wing an assemblage of Iranian Revolutionary
Guards, Hezbollah, Jibril's Popular Front - General Command, Iraqi military
intelligence and the pro-Iraqi Arab Liberation Front, joined in April by al
Qaeda.
The same crosscut of terrorist groups is present nowhere else but the United
States, although there they are mostly sleeper cells. In the Israel-Palestinian
areas, all the terrorist groups compete for a piece of the action and are eager
to help Arafat terrorize Israel out of existence.
The year 2002 is therefore characterized by the leading Islamic fundamentalist
and likeminded terror groups taking advantage of the Palestinian leader's "hospitality"
to strike roots inside Israel's borders. This year of terror falls into four
parts:
1. Raising arms and personnel: From January to March, a river
of terrorist weapons and explosive materials was smuggled into the Palestinian
Authority from Jordan and Lebanon but mostly from Iran. The Karine-A arms ship
was captured, but others certainly made it through to destination. The terrorists
arrived in the trail of the arms, slipping in by secret routes through Jordan,
the Golan, North Sinai and Israel's shores, to be picked up and hosted by Arafat's
men. This influx consisted of between 150 and 250 trained terror operatives
with heavy weapons, such as various types of portable missiles.
2. First operations: These incoming terror cells landed ready
for action. DEBKAfile's military and counter-terror sources report that al Qaeda
operatives were since discovered to have struck in March and April in some of
the deadliest attacks Israel ever suffered. They targeted hotels in Netanya,
wedding halls and restaurants in Haifa, Ashdod and Tel Aviv and West Bank roadblocks
at Wadi Kharmieh and Adora. Their commanders in Iran, Syria and Lebanon, like
Arafat, while rejoicing over the high Israeli death toll from these attacks,
did not commend the newcomers' zeal. The imported al Qaeda terror experts had
been told to go to ground until they were called out for the mega-attacks designed
to finish Israel in the final stage of the conflict.
3. Summer inertia: From May to November, these foreign cells
were quiescent, quietly improving their communications skills and gathering
intelligence.
4. Back in action: In November, orders for the cells to return
to action issued from al Qaeda's senior command posts in Yemen, Saudi Arabia,
Somalia and Lebanon and from Arafat's headquarters in Ramallah. DEBKAfile's
military and counter-terror sources report that the first attack in this cycle
was the crafty ambush laid in Hebron on Friday night, November 15, in which
12 Israeli officers, troops and security men were gunned down.
Next came the bombing-attack at the Mombassa Paradise Hotel on November 28,
together with the missile strike that missed an Israeli airliner carrying 260
passengers aboard. Later that day, gunmen went on a shooting-grenade assault
on a Likud polling station in the northern town of Beit Shean, killing six Israelis.
That night, a mega-terror strike was rumored to have been thwarted in Jerusalem,
although a court gag order prevented its publication. This penultimate stage
for the year 2002 is viewed by our experts as the prelude to a mega-terror offensive
already in the works. External and Palestinian terrorists are expected to combine
for an escalating cycle of attacks to culminate in one such mega-strike staged
by al Qaeda or Hezbollah terrorist cells. This is what the former Mossad chief
and current national security adviser, Efraim Halevy, was talking about in his
lecture on Monday, December 2, several hours before al Qaeda owned up to the
Mombassa strikes. Halevy spoke of the mega-terror menace hanging over Israel
as essentially one of "genocide" with the aim of destroying Israel to its very
foundations. "To meet a threat on this scale," he said, "Israel possesses a
broad and diverse array of capabilities, some of them not yet revealed." Inherent
in Israel's national security balance, he explained, is the ability to counter
menaces of this kind. Should the danger come to pass, that ability will take
the conflict to a new plane which, Halevy was sure, would be understood and
accepted by world opinion. DEBKAfile's military and counter-terror sources have
no doubt that the Israeli prime minister's chief emissary for delicate foreign
assignments was hinting darkly both at an unconventional threat to Israel, that
could take the form of a large-scale massacre, and at the Jewish state's forceful
retaliation by means of weapons and war tactics never yet brought into use.
Such a counter-strike could well be pre-emptive. For Israel's policy-makers,
the first danger signals flared in Hebron and Mombassa. On Monday, December
2, they published a dire warning as to their potential response.